Former CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger has presented a compelling thesis that Bitcoin's early-2026 hashrate rebound is more than a typical mining-cycle recovery and may be a lagging indicator of a broader price move ahead. In an X post on February 23, Weisberger argued that sovereign-linked mining activity is beginning to play for Bitcoin the structural role that central bank gold buying played for gold before its parabolic rally.
Weisberger points to a "textbook V-shaped recovery" in network hashrate, which rebounded from below 900 EH/s to above 1 ZH/s after a 15-20% pullback. This recovery was accompanied by one of the largest absolute difficulty increases on record, at nearly 15%. He contends this is not merely post-stress normalization but reflects a different class of miner stepping in. "This isn't random noise. It is the direct footprint of sovereign mining stepping in where private miners hesitated," he wrote.
A central part of his analysis is the claim that at least 13 nation-states are now mining Bitcoin at a governmental or state-linked level, citing VanEck research. Countries mentioned include Bhutan, the UAE, El Salvador, Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia. Weisberger emphasizes that these sovereign miners operate with different constraints: longer time horizons, different cost of capital, and less need to sell output during market weakness. This creates a mechanism for absorbing newly issued BTC directly into long-term holdings, reducing sell-side pressure while strengthening network security.
Concurrently, fresh analysis from on-chain analytics firm Santiment reveals that Bitcoin has reached its lowest correlation with U.S. stocks since the FTX collapse, creating what analysts describe as a "recoupling opportunity." Santiment's data shows Bitcoin has fallen 43% since August 2024 while gold surged 51% and the S&P 500 gained 7%. This represents the most significant separation between Bitcoin and traditional markets since November 2022.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong correlation with stock market movements during specific economic cycles. During low-interest rate environments and economic expansion (like 2021 and early 2024), Bitcoin rose alongside major indices. Conversely, during rate-hike cycles (2018 and 2022), Bitcoin declined alongside stocks. Santiment's analysis suggests that when correlation reaches extreme lows, reversion to historical norms becomes increasingly probable, often resolving within 6-12 months.
Potential catalysts for recoupling include Federal Reserve policy shifts toward accommodative monetary policy, improved economic growth projections, regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency markets, and institutional investment flows returning to historical patterns. At press time, BTC traded at $63,209.
