A new report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin's recent price rebound is more likely a temporary relief rally than the beginning of a sustained uptrend. The analysis hinges on the Fund Flow Ratio, a metric that tracks the amount of Bitcoin flowing into Binance relative to the exchange's total BTC reserves.
The Fund Flow Ratio currently sits at 0.012, a level considered low. This indicates that relatively little new Bitcoin is being transferred to Binance, which holds the deepest liquidity and is a primary venue for large institutional transfers. A low ratio suggests limited immediate sell-side pressure, as fewer coins are being positioned on the exchange for potential liquidation, meaning aggressive spot selling is not currently dominating the market.
Despite this easing of structural selling pressure, trend indicators remain bearish. Both the 30-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA 30 and SMA 50) are still sloping downward, signaling that medium-term momentum has not yet flipped bullish. The broader trend has not confirmed a reversal.
The report also notes that the Fund Flow Ratio did not spike even as Bitcoin's price dropped sharply toward $66,000. Typically, strong spot-driven selloffs are accompanied by spikes in exchange inflows as holders move BTC to sell. The absence of such a spike suggests the recent decline was largely driven by derivatives markets and liquidations rather than heavy spot distribution, indicating spot sellers are currently cautious.
CryptoQuant suggests the current setup—muted spot sell-side pressure and a low Fund Flow Ratio—could support a relief rally. If short positions remain crowded while exchange inflows stay subdued, upward price movement could trigger a short squeeze, slowing downside momentum and fueling a temporary bounce. However, without a structural shift in trend indicators, the move is viewed as a relief rally, not a confirmed bullish reversal.
