Bitcoin price has staged a strong recovery, climbing nearly 3% to around $65,106 after a recent dip to $62,553. This bounce comes just ahead of the upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report, a key economic indicator that has recently shown a clear correlation with crypto market momentum.
Historical data reveals a pattern where Bitcoin often rises following jobless claims releases. Last week on February 19th, claims came in at 206,000, lower than market expectations. Following that release, Bitcoin surged nearly 2.7%, reaching a high of $67,518. This pattern has repeated several times this month, reinforcing the connection between labor data and crypto sentiment. Traders are now positioning ahead of the February 26th report, which is expected to show around 216,000 claims.
The logic behind this correlation centers on Federal Reserve policy expectations. Rising jobless claims suggest a weakening labor market, which could increase the probability of interest rate cuts. Lower rates generally improve market liquidity, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. Consequently, weaker jobless data tends to support Bitcoin's price, while stronger data can dampen rate-cut expectations and limit upside momentum.
On the technical front, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested support in the $62,000–$64,000 range this month but has so far failed to break above the $67,875 resistance level. Analysts are watching for a breakout above this level, which could pave the way for a test of the next key resistance near $70,531. A clear move above $70,500 is seen as potentially triggering a stronger upward move.
However, underlying network activity presents a cautionary note. Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin's network activity has remained weak for six consecutive months, with its "Active Addresses Momentum" indicator staying below zero from mid-2025 through the latest reading. CryptoQuant compared the current pattern to 2024, when a similar stretch of weak activity preceded a roughly 30% Bitcoin correction, though they noted this was context rather than a direct forecast.
Analyst Lennaert Snyder provided a near-term technical framework, identifying $66,590 and $68,000 as critical levels on the 4-hour chart. He stated that reclaiming the $66,590 swing high would signal a potential market structure break, but the more important bullish trigger sits near $68,000, described as the range's point of control. A move above $68,000 could target resistance near $71,422 and liquidity around $76,971. Conversely, a rejection at these levels could set up shorts targeting fresh weekly lows.
