The price of Chainlink (LINK) is currently consolidating around the $8.30 mark, showing a 3.19% decline over the last 24 hours and trading within a narrow band between $8.19 and $8.60. This follows a period of market volatility where aggregated open interest in LINK derivatives fell from a high near $187 million on February 21st to around $169.76 million, indicating a wave of long liquidations. The stabilization of open interest near $170 million suggests not all participants have exited, but overall exposure remains lower than recent highs, pointing to a cautious market sentiment.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. On the 1-hour chart, LINK/USDT is in a short-term downtrend, having been rejected around the $9 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows mild positive momentum with small green bars, but both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero, indicating the broader trend is still weak. The Chaikin Money Flow is hovering around the zero line, signaling a balance between buying and selling pressure. Analysts note that for a rally towards $10 to materialize, a sustained break above the $8.50-$8.60 resistance zone is needed, accompanied by a significant increase in both spot volume and derivative market exposure.
Simultaneously, a separate, more bullish macro analysis is gaining traction. This perspective highlights that LINK is defending a critical monthly demand zone between $4.00 and $4.70, which is viewed as a key institutional accumulation territory. The analysis suggests that a multi-year compression phase following LINK's 2021 all-time high of $52.70 may be complete, with liquidity below the structure having been 'swept'. This sets the stage for a potential macro expansion cycle.
The long-term structural targets outlined in this bullish thesis are substantial. If LINK confirms a breakout with higher highs, the pathway could unfold in stages: first to $13 for confirmation, then towards a major liquidity cluster at $30-$31, followed by intermediate resistance near $42, and ultimately targeting a full range expansion projection around $53. This $53 target represents an approximate 1,200% increase from the current demand zone. The thesis hinges on LINK maintaining monthly closes above the $4.00 support level; a sustained close below $2.00 would invalidate the macro bullish outlook.
