Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near the $63,000 level following a sharp sell-off in February, which has seen the cryptocurrency decline approximately 28% for the month and sit roughly 47% below its all-time high of ~$126,000 from October 2025. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has issued a critical assessment, suggesting the downturn may not be over.
Glassnode's analysis hinges on Bitcoin's 90-day moving average Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which has recently fallen below 1. This metric, which compares the value of profits realized on-chain to losses realized, is a key indicator of market sentiment and selling pressure. Historically, a drop below this threshold has signaled extended periods where realized losses dominate the market.
In a post on social media platform X, Glassnode cited historical precedents. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin's value declined by 25% in the six months following the metric falling below 1. An even more severe precedent was set in 2018, where under similar conditions, Bitcoin experienced a price drop exceeding 50% over a five-month period.
"If history repeats itself, the BTC price could continue its downtrend for five months or more," the firm stated. The analysis implies that the current market structure could lead to several more months of downside pressure before a sustained recovery. Glassnode noted that a return of the ratio above 1 generally indicates a decrease in selling pressure and a potential shift in market phase.
