AI cloud infrastructure provider CoreWeave is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report, with Wall Street anticipating significant revenue growth alongside substantial net losses. Analysts project Q4 revenue of $1.55 billion, representing a 101% year-over-year increase. However, the company is also expected to report a net loss of $342 million, driven largely by interest expenses on its growing debt load.
CoreWeave's business model relies on using long-term customer contracts to secure financing for aggressive data center expansion. As of the end of September, the company carried nearly $19 billion in debt and lease liabilities. A key metric, its remaining performance obligations (RPO) or customer backlog, stood at over $55 billion last quarter. Analyst Brent Thill of Jefferies forecasts this backlog will climb to $60–$65 billion for Q4, with further acceleration expected in the first half of 2026.
The company's client roster includes tech giants Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and OpenAI, which provides lenders with confidence. Notably, Nvidia recently deepened its partnership with CoreWeave by announcing a $2 billion equity investment. Nvidia, already CoreWeave's chip supplier, customer, and investor, will now act as a capital partner. Citi analyst Tyler Radke noted this move positions Nvidia as a "high-investment-grade counterparty" to help CoreWeave secure infrastructure more competitively, a deal Jefferies termed a "force multiplier" expected to lower CoreWeave's cost of capital.
Despite the growth, challenges persist. CoreWeave previously trimmed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance from $5.15–$5.25 billion to $5.05–$5.15 billion due to a data center delay. Recent market volatility included a stock drop following a report (denied by both companies) that alternative asset manager Blue Owl was struggling to sell CoreWeave data center debt to lenders. Furthermore, CoreWeave's largest early investor, Magnetar Capital, has been steadily reducing its position since lock-up restrictions expired in August, holding 68 million shares by the end of December.
Looking ahead, full-year 2025 total revenue is expected to be $5.11 billion. Investors are keenly awaiting the company's 2026 guidance on sales and capital expenditures. The stock, which is up 148% since its IPO in March but has fallen significantly after its last two earnings reports, faces headwinds including intense competition from other data center providers, rising capital expenditure, and a high valuation with a market cap over $50 billion.
