A significant derivatives event is poised to test the crypto market's recent rebound, with over $8.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts set to expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on February 27, 2026. According to data from the exchange, the notional value includes approximately $7.8 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and around $1 billion in Ethereum (ETH) options.
The current positioning shows a bullish skew, with a BTC put/call ratio of 0.76 and an ETH put/call ratio of 0.77, indicating a dominance of call (bullish) open interest. However, market analysts warn that this setup, while optimistic, increases the risk of short-term volatility, pullbacks, or sudden reversals as hedges unwind post-expiry. Deribit's data points to a max pain price—the strike price causing maximum loss to option holders—of $75,000 for BTC and $2,200 for ETH, which could act as gravitational points during the settlement.
Despite a strong spot price performance—with Bitcoin trading near $68,000 (up 4% on the day) and Ethereum surging close to $2,100 (up 8%)—options traders remain cautious. Deribit executive Sidrah Fariq told CoinDesk that put options, particularly the $60,000 strike for Bitcoin with $1.48 billion in open interest, continue to dominate overall positioning. This contrasts with the most popular call option at the $90,000 strike, which holds $1.12 billion in open interest, signaling underlying skepticism about the sustainability of the rally.
The immediate price outlook hinges on the market's ability to absorb derivatives-driven pressure. For Bitcoin, holding above the $67,000-$68,000 support zone post-expiry could pave the way for a test of resistance at $69,500-$70,000. A failure could see a retracement toward $65,500. For Ethereum, maintaining a hold above $2,000 is seen as constructive, with a break above $2,150 reinforcing its recovery leadership. The event is viewed more as a short-term volatility catalyst than a trend-changer, with the broader bullish structure likely to remain intact if prices stabilize after the expiry.
