Pi Coin (PI) has rebounded approximately 11% from its February 23 low of around $0.130, climbing back to the $0.174 zone as of February 26, 2026. This recovery, however, is unfolding within a concerning technical pattern that suggests it may be a setup for a new decline rather than the start of a sustained rally.
The price action is forming what appears to be an inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a bearish structure where the current rise represents the 'handle' portion. Historically, such rebounds often fail below key resistance levels and lead to breakdowns. Pi Coin is now approaching a critical juncture: a drop below $0.161 would likely confirm the pattern's breakdown, potentially pushing the price toward the $0.130 low and possibly to a new low of $0.122.
Conflicting signals are emerging from market participants. On one hand, retail traders are aggressively buying the dip, as evidenced by rising On-Balance Volume (OBV) and a bullish divergence on the Money Flow Index (MFI) between February 16 and 23. On the other hand, momentum indicators reveal underlying weakness. A hidden bearish divergence is present on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where momentum rose but the price formed a lower high between January 27 and February 25, signaling buyer exhaustion.
More alarmingly, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks large-scale capital flows, has been trending downward and remains below zero. This suggests that while retail traders are buying, larger investors are likely selling into the rebound. This dynamic often precedes price breakdowns, as retail-driven rallies lack the sustaining power of institutional capital.
The analysis comes as the Pi Network marks one year since launching its Open Network. Co-founder Dr. Nicolas Kokkalis emphasized that the team's immediate focus remains on KYC verification and mainnet migration, which are deemed essential for network integrity and real-world utility. The project is increasing KYC throughput, integrating AI tools, and working to unblock more users. Beyond onboarding, Pi is investing in developer infrastructure, with over 300 applications reportedly running on the network, and has plans for protocol upgrades including decentralized exchange and liquidity features.
For the recovery to be validated, Pi Coin needs to break above key resistance levels. A move above $0.173 would show early strength, a break above $0.193 would significantly weaken the bearish pattern, and a reclaim of $0.207 would invalidate it entirely. Until then, the technical setup warns that the recent rebound could be a trap setting the stage for the next leg down.
