Oil prices experienced modest gains on Thursday, February 26, 2026, as traders positioned themselves ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva. Brent crude rose approximately 0.3% to around $71 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained a similar amount to about $65.55.
The talks involve U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting with Iranian officials to discuss Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated a diplomatic solution remains possible with constructive engagement from both sides. However, significant disagreements reportedly persist, with sources close to the negotiations describing the process as "far from optimistic."
Analysts at ING noted that a successful deal could remove up to $10 per barrel in geopolitical risk premium currently priced into oil markets. Conversely, a breakdown in talks maintains upside price risk, though markets may wait to gauge the U.S.'s willingness to escalate before reacting fully. The U.S. military buildup in the Middle East continues to keep the risk of conflict on the table.
On the supply side, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed a substantial 16-million-barrel build in commercial crude stocks for the week ending February 20—the largest weekly increase in nearly three years. This added downward pressure to prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to meet this weekend, with analysts anticipating an agreement to resume supply increases starting in April.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi announced that significant progress had been made in the talks, with negotiations set to resume following consultations in both capitals. Technical-level discussions are scheduled for Vienna next week. Following the "significant progress" announcement, energy markets initially reacted downward, with both WTI and Brent crude futures contracts falling.
