Bitcoin has extended its decline, falling below the $64,000 mark amid a backdrop of extreme fear and significant on-chain selling activity. The downturn follows the cryptocurrency's record high of $126,198 reached in October 2025, with selling pressure gradually intensifying across the broader market since that peak.
Recent data highlights acute stress among short-term holders. According to CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn, a substantial 23,300 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a realized loss within a single 24-hour period. Such movements typically signal an intent to sell, as transferring Bitcoin to exchanges often precedes liquidation, whereas withdrawals usually indicate accumulation.
Market sentiment indicators reflect the pervasive negativity. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at a deeply fearful level of 14. Furthermore, a critical metric shows that more than 9 million Bitcoin, representing approximately 45% of the circulating supply, is now held below investors' cost basis. This large pool of unrealized losses explains why many investors are selling into short-term price rebounds, thereby capping upward momentum.
Selling has dominated the month of February, with 19 of the first 22 days recording net realized losses. This pattern means more holders sold below their entry prices than above them, leading to consistent loss accumulation across consecutive trading sessions.
Adding another layer of concern, Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) are showing signs of fragility. An analysis by pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost, using the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, reveals that monthly LTH SOPR has slipped below the critical level of 1 to around 0.98. This indicates that even these typically steadfast investors are, on average, beginning to realize losses on a monthly basis.
While the annualized LTH SOPR remains positive at approximately 1.84 (implying 84% in average realized gains), it has been on a downward trend. Historically, bear markets have formed only after the SOPR dropped towards the 0.6 region, correlating with average realized losses of about 40%. The current reading, while below 1, is still far from this capitulation zone, suggesting long-term holders are in a transitional phase.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin's price stands at approximately $64,247, reflecting a loss of 4.85% over the past day. The combination of sustained exchange inflows at a loss, extreme fear sentiment, and the potential for eroding profits among long-term holders paints a picture of a market under prolonged stress following its October 2025 peak.
