Crypto analyst Aralez has issued a warning that a deeper correction for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly likely, with the potential for the price to fall below $50,000. This outlook is driven by a combination of technical weakness and rising global geopolitical uncertainty.
Bitcoin's price has struggled to maintain momentum above the $60,000 level, facing consistent resistance on attempts to reclaim higher ground. Aralez points to escalating geopolitical tensions, specifically referencing a reported incident in Abbottabad, Pakistan, as a potential catalyst for a sharp, risk-off move across markets. He argues that Bitcoin, despite its long-term 'digital gold' narrative, often behaves as a high-beta asset during acute stress, making it vulnerable to sudden capital outflows.
Aralez estimates that a severe geopolitical escalation could trigger a 5% to 10% drop across the broader crypto market within hours, with Bitcoin absorbing a significant portion of that decline. This could realistically push BTC from the mid-$60,000 range into the low $50,000s. He cautions that traders using leverage face particularly high risks during such volatile periods.
Separate technical analysis using monthly Bollinger Bands adds a quantitative perspective to the downside risk. The analysis indicates that after falling below its 20-month moving average in December 2025, Bitcoin's next major magnet on the chart is the lower Bollinger Band, situated around $54,420. With BTC currently trading near $66,000, a move to this band would represent an approximate 17% decline. Historically, the monthly lower band marked the cycle bottom in 2022.
Aralez does not frame a potential drop as a permanent bearish shift. He draws parallels to the COVID-19 market reaction, where an initial panic-driven sell-off was followed by a historic rally. He suggests a sharp BTC price decline could precede a later wave of inflows if global uncertainty erodes confidence in traditional financial systems, positioning Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
