Bitcoin is trading at weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels historically associated with bear market bottoms, signaling that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. According to crypto analyst Batman, Bitcoin's weekly RSI has fallen into territory that has repeatedly marked prior bear market bottoms, indicating the market could be approaching a major turning point. However, Batman stresses this does not confirm the bottom is in, emphasizing the need for proper confirmation before declaring a reversal.
Historically, when RSI compresses to these levels on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has typically been much closer to a structural low than to the beginning of a fresh collapse. Reflecting on the 2022 cycle, Batman notes that once RSI entered this extreme zone, price printed one final lower low very close to the ultimate bottom, suggesting most of the downside had already played out.
Adding to the rare technical structure, analyst SuperBro pointed out that BTC has printed six consecutive weekly lower highs, a pattern last seen during the COVID crash in 2020. Price is currently slipping beneath the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the volume Point of Control (POC). A reclaim of the POC before the weekly close could trigger a sharp upside reaction.
The technical compression coincides with significant market stress. Bitcoin's February performance closed with a -14.94% decline, making it the third-worst February return in the asset's history. The price opened near $77,000 on February 1st and closed at $66,980 on February 28th, after briefly hitting lows of $64,150.
The recent decline pushed Bitcoin decisively below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis near $89,900, signaling rising stress among active market participants. As the market retraced from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a growing share of circulating supply shifted into unrealized loss. Realized Loss events intensified, with several spikes approaching $4 billion–$6 billion during sharp sell-offs, indicating widespread capitulation among recently acquired coins.
Meanwhile, long-term holder cost structures remain significantly lower, suggesting dormant supply still sits comfortably in profit. This imbalance highlights how stress concentrates within newer participants. The expanding supply in loss, primarily among short-term cohorts, increasingly resembles early capitulation dynamics.
The key question now is market absorption. Amid the final week's sell-off from $68,000 toward $65,880, fresh demand began testing incoming supply. Whale accumulation signals and rising stablecoin liquidity suggest larger participants may be preparing to absorb the pressure. Exchange netflows and the Coinbase Premium Index remain critical indicators of whether bids stabilize the structure or allow the correction to extend.
