Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin-focused company Jan3, has presented an analysis arguing that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading significantly below its fair value when measured against gold. Mow contends that BTC is currently priced between 24% and 66% below its historical trend relative to gold's market capitalization and the global M2 money supply.
The core of his argument is the BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score, a metric tracking Bitcoin's deviation from its long-term valuation trend against gold. As of March 1, 2026, this Z-score stands at -1.24. While not yet at historical extremes, Mow views this as an early signal of undervaluation. Historically, major Bitcoin rallies have followed deeper plunges in this metric: during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, the Z-score fell below -2, preceding a roughly 300% rally over the next year. In November 2022 amid the FTX collapse, it dropped below -3, followed by a 150% recovery in 12 months.
The valuation gap between the two assets remains stark. By late 2025, gold's total market cap was estimated between $20.8 trillion and $28 trillion, while Bitcoin's was roughly $2.2 trillion—just 8% to 10% of gold's size. In early 2025, the combined value of gold and Bitcoin represented about 29% of the estimated $103 trillion global M2 money supply.
Mow notes that gold has recently outperformed Bitcoin, surging approximately 40% by October 2025 while Bitcoin gained about 20% over the same period, pushing gold into what he calls "overextended" territory with prices near $5,247.90 per ounce. Gold has since rebounded to around $5,400, further widening the perceived discount for Bitcoin.
Despite the current lag, Mow maintains an aggressively bullish long-term outlook. His headline price target remains $1 million per BTC, which he believes could materialize between 2031 and 2033. He also predicts a decade-long bull market through 2035 and foresees at least three additional nation-states implementing formal Bitcoin strategies in 2025, following El Salvador's lead.
However, not all analysts share this optimism. Some market strategists warn that Bitcoin could still revisit the $50,000 region due to geopolitical tensions and broader investor uncertainty. Critics also highlight Bitcoin's tendency to trade more like a high-growth tech stock during crises, reacting to liquidity and risk sentiment, unlike gold's traditional safe-haven behavior.
