Jan van Eck, CEO of global asset management firm VanEck, has declared that Bitcoin (BTC) is forming a significant market bottom during the final corrective phase of its four-year halving cycle. In an exclusive interview with CNBC, van Eck explained that Bitcoin historically follows a pattern of "three consecutive years of growth, followed by a typical sharp decline in the fourth year," with 2025/2026 representing that fourth, corrective year.
Van Eck stated, "Since 2026 is the fourth year here, we are currently in a crypto bear market, including Bitcoin. But from my point of view, we're hitting rock bottom given the current situation, which is a really good sign of recovery." This analysis follows Bitcoin's recent price action, where it climbed above $70,000 before falling back to the $68,000 level, still remaining more than 50% below its peak from October of the previous year.
The CEO emphasized that Bitcoin's price dynamics are fundamentally tied to its protocol-driven halving schedule, which reduces mining rewards by 50% approximately every four years. This creates predictable supply shocks and recurring economic cycles. Van Eck pointed to several converging factors supporting the bottoming thesis, including exchange reserves at multi-year lows and accelerated accumulation by long-term holders.
Van Eck also introduced a geopolitical dimension to his analysis, suggesting that recent Middle Eastern tensions and the development of alternative payment infrastructure could be influencing cryptocurrency adoption and contributing to the recent rebound. He noted that this evolving dynamic positions digital assets as an alternative store of value during periods of traditional market uncertainty.
While van Eck's view is optimistic, other market analysts present contrasting perspectives. Some argue that Bitcoin could still fall to $40,000, pointing to June and December as potential bottom periods. However, independent validations from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Fidelity Investments, which have published research noting similar cyclical patterns and highlighting accumulating behavior among long-term investors, strengthen the bottom formation thesis.
Beyond market cycles, fundamental improvements in Bitcoin's ecosystem, such as the growth of the Lightning Network and Taproot upgrades, alongside maturing institutional infrastructure and steady global adoption metrics, are seen as creating a stronger foundation for recovery compared to previous cycles.
