In the early days of the military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, Bitcoin has emerged as the top-performing major asset, significantly outpacing traditional safe havens like gold and oil. Since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026, Bitcoin's price has surged 12.1%, climbing from $65,492 to $73,231.
This performance starkly contrasts with other assets. Crude oil, while rising 10.4% due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, lagged behind. The strategic waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of global daily oil supply, saw tanker traffic plummet by 81% after insurers withdrew war risk coverage, pushing Brent crude to $82 per barrel. Analysts at Barclays warned prices could reach $100 if the blockade persists, prompting OPEC+ to announce an additional output of 206,000 barrels per day to cushion the impact.
Meanwhile, traditional safe havens faltered. Gold fell 3%, and silver posted losses of 10.2%, as the U.S. dollar strengthened and geopolitical fear shifted toward inflation expectations. The broader equity market, represented by the S&P 500, was essentially flat with a change of just -0.1%.
The conflict's economic toll is substantial. Israel's Finance Ministry estimates the nation is losing close to $3 billion per week due to wartime restrictions, with the bulk of losses expected to begin the following week. Despite this, initial market reactions were muted. U.S. stocks trended higher, and Israel's own Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rallied, with the TA-35 index gaining 3.8%.
Adding a novel perspective, a recent study involving 9,072 experiments across 36 frontier AI models found that AI agents chose Bitcoin 48% of the time as the optimal monetary asset. In store-of-value-specific scenarios, that preference jumped to 79%, with the Claude Opus 4.5 model selecting Bitcoin in 91% of cases.
