Ethena (ENA) experienced a short-lived price bounce, gaining 7% to reach $0.115 on March 3, 2026, accompanied by a surge in trading volume to $150 million and an 11.55% increase in Open Interest. However, the rally failed to break a critical resistance level at $0.1196, leaving a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the charts intact.
Technical analysis reveals the bounce was likely a relief rally or liquidity sweep, with the price gravitating toward a magnetic zone between $0.120 and $0.125. This area coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the 4-hour chart. Analysts note that for a true bullish trend reversal to occur, ENA must breach the $0.131 high. Failure to do so keeps the pattern's downside target of a 20% correction to $0.066 in play, contingent on a break below the neckline support at $0.08.
On-chain data contradicts narratives of whale accumulation, revealing significant selling by large holders. Between February 20 and March 3, whale holdings dropped from 9.48 billion to 9.3 billion ENA tokens, indicating a distribution of 180 million tokens during the price decline. This selling pressure is seen as a key reason the bounce faltered.
Further headwinds include an upcoming token unlock on March 5, which will release 171 million ENA tokens into circulation—over four times larger than the 40 million unlocked on March 2. This potential increase in selling pressure arrives amid a weak technical setup, despite strong protocol fundamentals like USDe's $6 billion market cap and high staking yields.
