Ethereum (ETH) is sending conflicting technical signals as it trades near 10-month lows, with analysts debating whether a bearish continuation or a bullish rotation is imminent. The price remains trapped within a significant monthly range, capped by a strong ceiling at $2,125, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April–August rally.
A key bearish scenario suggests ETH could be forming a classic bearish rectangle pattern, which typically resolves with a downward break. A decisive close below the $1,850 support floor could trigger a slide toward the lower edge of the bearish channel at $1,485, with potential extensions to last year's floor at $1,382 and even the November 2022 support near $1,100.
Conversely, a bullish structural shift is emerging on shorter timeframes. Ethereum has successfully defended the critical $1,862 high-timeframe support, which acted as a value area low, leading to the formation of consecutive higher highs and higher lows. This shift occurred as price reclaimed and held above the Point of Control (POC), indicating buyer acceptance at higher levels.
The immediate upside target for bulls is the major resistance zone at $2,200, situated above the current value area high. Technical indicators offer mixed readings: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) points slightly positive. A break above the $2,125 ceiling could see ETH challenge the 50-day simple moving average near $2,395, with a path open toward $2,730 and potentially $3,000.
Overall, traders are awaiting a clean break either above $2,125 or below $1,850 to determine the next clear directional move for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
