On-chain data is drawing market attention to Ethereum's valuation, suggesting it has entered a zone historically associated with major cycle bottoms. According to analysis shared by market analyst Ali Charts, Ethereum's current price is trading within the lower bands of its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a level that has preceded significant rebounds in past market cycles.
The MVRV ratio compares Ethereum's market capitalization to its realized value, which is the average price at which coins last moved on-chain, representing the aggregate cost basis for investors. When the ratio approaches its lower pricing bands, it indicates the asset is trading near or below the average price paid by holders, a condition often seen during bear market capitulation phases.
Ali Charts' analysis, citing Glassnode data, outlines specific MVRV pricing bands. The lower bands, signaling potential undervaluation, are near $1,894 (0.8x MVRV) and $2,367 (1.0x MVRV, considered a fair value zone). In contrast, the upper expansion bands sit significantly higher at $5,683 (2.4x) and $7,577 (3.2x), levels historically aligned with peak market phases. The chart highlights several green-shaded areas marking past instances where Ethereum traded near these lower bands before subsequent recoveries began.
Concurrently, a separate Elliott Wave analysis from More Crypto Online suggests Ethereum's price structure could see one more high to complete a wave (3) pattern, with upside projections targeting levels between $2,351 and $2,676. Following this, a wave (4) correction is anticipated, with potential pullback zones identified using Fibonacci retracements, ranging from $2,109 down to deeper support near $1,600.
While MVRV bands serve as a valuation framework rather than a precise timing tool, the convergence of current prices with historical bottom zones is a key signal being monitored by analysts for a potential trend reversal in Ethereum's market cycle.
