George Cottrell, a 32-year-old political aide to UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage, has suffered a significant loss of approximately $655,000 on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket. Cottrell, known as "Posh George," incorrectly wagered against the timing of US military strikes on Iran in late February 2026.
The losses centered on a specific market created by Polymarket that allowed users to bet on whether the US would strike Iran on specific dates. Trading under the username GCottrell93, Cottrell initially won $107,000 by correctly betting "no" on a strike occurring on February 27. However, he then placed a massive $550,000 bet that the US would not strike on February 28. When the US military confirmed strikes on Iranian-aligned targets on that date, the "no" contracts collapsed to zero, resulting in the total loss of that wager. He lost an additional $165,000 across three other inaccurate date-specific bets.
The incident has drawn attention to the explosive growth and scrutiny of prediction markets. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are now processing hundreds of millions in volume on geopolitical events. The "Ouster of Iranian Leaders" market on Polymarket alone saw over $529 million in volume. This has prompted criticism from lawmakers, with Democrat Senator Chris Murphy stating, "It's insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I'm introducing legislation ASAP to ban this." A White House spokesperson, however, denied that anyone close to President Donald Trump was behind the trades.
Cottrell's activity was identified by crypto investigator ZachXBT, who linked the GCottrell93 account to him. Despite this major loss, Cottrell's overall track record on Polymarket remains profitable. Accounting for losses, he has netted $3.4 million in profits across 23 predictions. His largest win was $4.4 million from correctly betting on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election. His next biggest loss after the Iran bet was nearly $125,000 from an incorrect wager that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be ousted on February 28, 2026.
