Tesla's stock (TSLA) is facing significant pressure, testing multi-month lows around $400, driven by a sharp decline in European sales and a looming regulatory deadline. Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) revealed Tesla's UK vehicle sales plummeted 37% year-over-year in February to 2,422 units. This decline starkly contrasts with a 7.2% rise in overall UK new car sales, which reached their best February level since 2004.
Tesla contested the monthly figures, with a spokesperson stating that registration data does not accurately reflect sales or orders, and that quarterly data is a better metric due to delivery logistics from its factories. The spokesperson claimed customer orders and reservations for January and February "far exceed" the same periods in 2025 and 2024. Alternative data from research firm New Automotive also showed a significant drop, estimating February UK sales at around 2,208 vehicles, a 45.2% decline.
The European picture is mixed. While Tesla registrations surged in France (55%), Norway (32%), and Spain (74%) in February, they fell sharply in the Netherlands (45%) and Denmark (18%). This follows a reported 17% year-over-year drop in EU registrations for January. Meanwhile, competitor BYD saw an 83% surge in UK sales according to SMMT, though its volume still lags behind Tesla's.
The immediate catalyst for the stock's decline is a critical March 9 deadline from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The regulator is probing Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, central to its robotaxi ambitions. After two extensions, Tesla must hand over crash videos, CAN bus logs, and event data recorder files related to incidents involving recent FSD versions. The probe, which began with 58 cases in October 2025, has expanded, and a messy submission could result in fines, recalls, or delays to Tesla's autonomy plans.
Wall Street sentiment remains cautious. Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry called Tesla the "current leader in consumer autonomy," but the consensus rating on TSLA is a Hold. The average price target is $399.25, implying minimal upside. Bearish analysts from firms like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas argue a valuation reset is overdue if robotaxi prospects dim, with price targets as low as $145 and $280, respectively.
