Shares of advertising technology company The Trade Desk (TTD) experienced a dramatic surge of over 20% during early trading on Thursday, March 6, 2026, following a report by The Information that OpenAI had held early-stage discussions with the company. The talks reportedly centered on The Trade Desk helping to sell advertisements within OpenAI's flagship ChatGPT platform.
The potential partnership fueled investor optimism that The Trade Desk could gain access to a premier, high-growth advertising channel. OpenAI is said to believe such a move could help double revenue generated from consumer ChatGPT services to approximately $17 billion in 2026. The rally offered a reprieve for TTD stock, which had fallen more than 33% year-to-date and roughly 63% over the past 12 months, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500.
The stock received an additional boost from a Form 4 disclosure revealing that CEO Jeff Green recently purchased about $148 million worth of company shares on the open market, a move often interpreted as a sign of management confidence.
However, the rally was met with significant skepticism. On Friday, March 7, research firm Wedbush downgraded TTD from "neutral" to "underperform," maintaining a price target of $23. This implies a 22.8% downside from the stock's trading level around $29.80 at the time. Wedbush argued the market's reaction was overblown, warning that as OpenAI scales, it will likely build its own in-house demand-side platform (DSP) to capture ad revenue, potentially sidelining third parties like The Trade Desk.
The downgrade followed the company's recent Q4 2025 earnings report, released on February 25. While The Trade Desk beat earnings expectations with EPS of $1.77 (up 6.6% YoY) and reported 2025 revenue growth of 18% to $2.9 billion, it provided weak Q1 2026 guidance of $678 million, representing only 10% growth. This initially triggered a 5% post-earnings drop. The company faces intensifying competition from digital advertising giants like Amazon, whose Q4 2025 ad revenue hit $21.3 billion, up 23%.
Analysts are divided. Trefis noted a potential partnership could shift the narrative from slowing growth to renewed expansion but cautioned that confirmation of talks or analyst upgrades would be crucial for sustaining the rally. Out of 42 analysts covering TTD, 38 maintain Buy, Overweight, or Hold ratings, with a consensus price target of $32 suggesting over 25% upside. Only four, including Wedbush, maintain underweight or sell ratings.
