On-chain data from analytics firm Glassnode reveals a significant shift in investor behavior for XRP, with a key profitability indicator signaling a wave of panic selling and loss realization. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether coins are moved at a profit or loss, has sharply declined from 1.16 to 0.96. This drop below the critical threshold of 1.0 indicates that a growing number of XRP holders are now selling their tokens at prices below their original purchase cost, effectively realizing losses.
The 30-day exponential moving average of the SOPR has shown a gradual decline, culminating in the current level near 0.96. This pattern is reminiscent of the prolonged consolidation phase XRP experienced between September 2021 and May 2022, where the indicator similarly hovered around the break-even point. The current movement suggests that earlier profit-taking activity has transitioned into capitulation, as coins bought during previous rallies are being offloaded at lower prices.
Amid this selling pressure, XRP's price has drifted toward the $1.40 level. The weekly Realized Losses for the token have reached approximately -$1.93 billion, marking the largest weekly drawdown since 2022. Despite the negative market sentiment and weakening retail confidence, underlying network activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) remains robust. The network continues to process between 1.8 million and 2.5 million daily successful payments, with throughput stable at 18–25 transactions per second. Active addresses are holding steady between 35,000 and 40,000, and the total number of activated accounts has surpassed 7.68 million.
Analysts note that the current market structure, characterized by capitulation (evidenced by SOPR below 1.0) coupled with strong, steady network utility, mirrors conditions that historically preceded price recoveries for XRP. A similar pattern in the 2021-2022 cycle, where sustained selling at a loss was followed by a surge in network participation, eventually led to a significant price rally.
