Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has published an extensive analysis arguing that the XRP/BTC ratio follows a measurable, repeating eight-year liquidity cycle, with current price action mirroring the setup before major historical expansions. The analysis focuses on the XRP/BTC ratio, which measures capital rotation from Bitcoin into XRP specifically, rather than just XRP's dollar value. According to EGRAG, these rotations are historically "violent and fast."
The monthly XRP/BTC chart on Binance reveals two defining structural zones. Zone 1 (green) marks cycle tops where XRP becomes overextended relative to Bitcoin, leading to multi-year declines. This occurred at the 2017 and 2021 peaks. Zone 2 (red) is the capitulation zone, where XRP becomes deeply undervalued against Bitcoin, triggering long-term accumulation. This zone was touched at the 2015, 2020, and 2024-2025 lows.
Currently, the price is compressed within a grey band between these two zones, in what EGRAG describes as a classic accumulation range. The historical sequence after Zone 2 rebounds has been consistent: sideways accumulation, a break above mid-range resistance, then violent outperformance against Bitcoin. The analyst projects the same structure for 2025-2026, with a confirmed signal being a break above the upper grey resistance band on the XRP/BTC chart.
This analysis emerges against a backdrop of mixed institutional and on-chain signals for XRP. XRP-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw sharp outflows of $16.62 million on March 6, 2026, marking the heaviest one-day withdrawal since January 29. This reversed a positive start to the week that saw three days of inflows totaling over $18 million. Cumulative ETF inflows slipped to $1.24 billion, with Canary Capital XRPC ($266.11M) and Bitwise XRP ($265.42M) leading issuers.
Concurrently, XRP price failed to hold a midweek recovery above $1.45, trading near $1.3649 within a descending channel formed since mid-February. Derivatives activity declined, with open interest dropping 2.61% to $2.30 billion and trading volume falling 15.92% to $3.05 billion.
Contrasting the ETF outflows, on-chain data shows significant whale accumulation. Large holders increased their combined XRP holdings from 10.87 billion to 11.01 billion tokens between March 5-7, adding roughly 140 million XRP valued at nearly $200 million. This accumulation, alongside exchange outflows, suggests stronger conviction among large holders. Analysts note an ascending wedge pattern on the daily chart and highlight $1.3820 as a key level to watch for a bullish case.
