Technical analysts are warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a final phase of selling pressure, with charts indicating a rejection at a key market structure and a potential Elliott Wave pattern pointing to a final leg lower. According to analysis shared by Titan of Crypto, Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a rejection at a major horizontal support-turned-resistance level, which now sits above the price near the mid-$70,000 zone. This failure to reclaim the level suggests bearish momentum remains in place.
The comparison to a past cycle adds to the caution, as a similar pattern previously led to an extended decline after losing structural support. Separately, analyst Matthew Dixon's four-hour chart analysis indicates Bitcoin has completed a Wave 4 corrective bounce and may now be starting a Wave 5 decline, which could see the price extend below recent support bands. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum has cooled, weakening the case for a near-term upside breakout.
Concurrently, broader cycle analysis reveals a long-term trend of shrinking bear markets. Crypto analyst CrypFlow notes that post-cycle drawdowns have compressed with each major cycle: 93% after 2011, 87% after 2013, 84% after 2017, and 78% after the 2021 peak. This suggests increasing market maturity and liquidity are reducing downside volatility. Extrapolating this trend, a worst-case drawdown from the 2025 peak of $126,080 could be around 70%, potentially placing a bottom near $37,000, though this is not a firm forecast.
However, a more immediate and concerning parallel is being drawn to the 2022 bear market. Analyst 'Chiefy' highlights that the current price action mirrors a textbook sequence from 2022: a bear trap followed by a bull trap. The recent bounce to $74,000 after a fall to $60,000 in February 2026 is seen as analogous to the bull trap around $21,000 in September 2022, which preceded fresh lows. If this pattern holds, the analysis warns the next Bitcoin price low could be around $50,000. Bitcoin is currently trading below $70,000 with little sign of strong buying demand to halt further downside.
