Bitcoin (BTC) has crept back above the key $70,000 resistance level, finding increased demand around the $65,000 zone over the weekend despite broader market gloom. However, the current price remains significantly below the estimated miner cost range of $89,000 to $91,000, creating a notable supply overhang.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode provided a cautiously constructive but sobering assessment in its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse. The report notes that while some market internals are healing, spot participation, capital flows, and broader conviction remain subdued. ETF activity was highlighted as a relative area of strength, with net weekly inflows accelerating from $776 million to $934 million and trading volume jumping from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. However, ETF MVRV dropped from 1.07 to negative 0.53, pushing the average ETF holder underwater—a condition Glassnode described as "consistent with capitulation-like conditions."
Spot market signals showed fragility. The 14-day RSI rose modestly from 45.2 to 47.7, indicating firmer buyer activity. However, spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) worsened from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, showing heavier sell-side pressure from aggressive traders. Spot volume also declined from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion, suggesting participants are waiting for stronger directional cues.
Derivatives markets presented a mixed picture. Futures open interest climbed 5.1% to $29.4 billion, indicating rebuilding leverage and speculative engagement. Perpetual CVD surged 201.7% to $172.6 million, signaling aggressive buy-side activity in leveraged markets. However, funding rates flipped sharply to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode's statistical low band and indicating stronger demand for short exposure—showing leveraged traders are active but not aligned on direction.
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a long-term logarithmic valuation tool, currently places BTC in an "extremely undervalued" area—specifically the purple "Bitcoin is dead" zone. This suggests potential for long-term upside based on historical cyclical patterns.
Analyst observations from Axel Adler Jr. reveal that short-term holders have continued to realize losses, with STH supply falling from 6.06 million BTC to 5.92 million (a drop of 140,000 BTC), potentially indicating capitulation. The realized price—the average cost-basis of all BTC in circulation—stands at $89,000, creating a 21.3% gap with the current market price of approximately $70,000. This gap represents a significant supply overhang, as short-term holders at a loss may look to sell during rallies to avoid realizing losses.
The LTH/STH SOPR metric currently sits at 0.89, showing short-term holders are selling at a loss while long-term holders are not selling but also not absorbing the supply. This ratio remains above the 0.48 and 0.50 levels seen at the 2018 and 2022 bear market bottoms, suggesting calling a structural low might be premature.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $70,755, with Glassnode concluding that while market structure looks steadier than a week ago, the rebound remains tentative until spot demand returns in force.
