The recent recovery attempt by Shiba Inu (SHIB) has faltered after the memecoin faced a sharp rejection at a critical technical resistance level, trapping bullish traders in what analysts are calling a major fakeout. The asset, which had shown signs of stabilization, is now highlighting persistent bearish pressure despite encouraging on-chain data.
SHIB's price action has been volatile, briefly rebounding from lows around $0.0000055 earlier in the week to hit a local high of $0.00000609 on Tuesday. This move was supported by a surge in trading volume, with the Shiba Inu ecosystem's aggregate volume reaching $214.28 million on Wednesday—its highest level since February 6, according to Santiment. Furthermore, derivatives data from CoinGlass showed a long-to-short ratio of 1.36, the highest in over a month, indicating more traders were betting on a price rally.
However, the recovery quickly reversed as SHIB approached the 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key technical resistance level. The price was rejected at this barrier, falling back to hover around $0.00000566 as of Wednesday. This rejection has reinforced the existing bearish structure, with the token repeatedly forming lower highs over recent months. Technical analysis suggests that layered resistance zones, including the 50-day EMA at $0.0000063 and a weekly resistance at $0.0000067, continue to loom above the current price.
Mixed signals emerge from on-chain metrics. While increased volume and a high long-to-short ratio point to growing trader interest and liquidity, data from CryptoQuant presents a more nuanced picture. The firm notes signs of overheating in the spot market combined with sell-side dominance in the futures market, which could prompt some traders to reduce their exposure.
The immediate technical outlook remains uncertain. For the recovery to be sustained, SHIB needs to close a daily candle above the 50-day EMA, which could then target the February 14 swing high of $0.00000724. The 4-hour chart shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 and pointing upward, with a recent bullish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Conversely, if the recovery fails, SHIB risks extending its decline to retest the February 6 low of $0.0000050.
