CryptoQuant's Apparent Demand Growth (ADG) metric signaled the top of Bitcoin's cycle well before the price confirmed it, revealing a six-step deterioration sequence from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to the current level near $70,000. This on-chain weakness was visible in data before it manifested in price action.
The breakdown unfolded in a precise sequence: Step one saw Bitcoin at $118,000 with ADG recording its last higher low while the price structure still appeared bullish. Step two aligned with the $126,000 ATH, where both price and demand peaked together. The divergence began in step three at $123,000, where ADG closed below its previous higher low, indicating demand contraction while price remained elevated—breaking the bullish market structure in demand data.
Step four at $114,000 marked the first lower low in ADG after the peak, confirming a definitively broken demand structure. Step five at $101,000 showed the last lower high before the major decline, with on-chain demand deteriorating for weeks while price decline remained gradual. The final confirmation, step six, arrived on November 16 when Bitcoin closed at $94,000 below the weekly 50-day simple moving average (SMA50) at $102,000, representing confluence between on-chain weakness and price action weakness.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $69,416.10, down 0.3% in 24 hours with daily market volume declining 3.95% to approximately $48.51 billion. CryptoQuant analysts describe this as the "most frustrating" phase of the market cycle, characterized by prolonged sideways movement where short rallies fail to generate lasting momentum.
Key on-chain metrics paint a cautious picture: The long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (for holders >155 days) sits below one, indicating these investors are selling at a loss rather than securing profits—reflecting rising caution. Apparent demand has remained negative since late February 2026, meaning buying activity hasn't been strong enough to absorb market supply.
Despite the volatility, Blockstream CEO Adam Back suggests institutional players may be quietly accumulating Bitcoin at current levels, viewing the price range as a discounted entry point. The recovery in ADG historically takes comparable time to the breakdown, which played out over months from top to confirmation.
