Prominent cryptocurrency analysts are drawing parallels between Bitcoin's current market structure and historical patterns that preceded massive price surges, though they caution that a key support level must hold. Analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined on X that Bitcoin's setup closely resembles its behavior in late 2022, which culminated in a rally from $15,000 to $73,000—a gain of nearly 400%.
Merlijn's analysis hinges on a pattern of "descending compression" and a "sweep buy liquidity," which he believes traps late sellers before a price reversal. He stated that for this bullish scenario to play out, Bitcoin must hold the crucial $65,000 level. If it does, he theorizes a similar 385% surge could propel BTC to well over $300,000. However, if $65,000 fails, the liquidity sweep phase would likely continue.
Echoing the theme of cyclical patterns, Merlijn noted that every major Bitcoin bull cycle has started with a bear trap, citing examples from 2013, 2016, and 2020 with gains of 24,000%, 6,300%, and 842%, respectively. He emphasized that fear, which has dominated the market for consecutive months, is typically the first phase of a rally.
Meanwhile, veteran trader Peter Brandt added to the technical intrigue by highlighting a familiar channel pattern on Bitcoin's chart. He shared a teaser, "I pledge allegiance to the...", alongside charts depicting this pattern. Brandt previously referred to a "little Banana" channel pattern, suggesting that when it aligns with a larger pattern (the "Big Banana"), it could signal a significant move, with historical charts pointing to long-term targets between $250,000 and $500,000.
Not all analysts are convinced of an imminent sustained rally. Doctor Profit, who predicted the recent correction, acknowledged Bitcoin's pump to $74,000 but argued it is likely a short-term upside move before "another downturn" to new lows. Bitcoin was indeed rejected at the $74,000 level twice in about ten days and is struggling to maintain footing above $70,000.
Market data shows Bitcoin rose to a high of $73,698 on Friday, March 14, before retreating roughly 2.29% to around $70,740. The asset has been trading sideways between $75,000 and $60,000 since early February. A supportive factor is the return of institutional capital, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs poised for a third consecutive week of net inflows—the longest streak since July—attracting over $1.6 billion in the past month.
