Global commodity markets, particularly aluminium and oil, are facing mounting pressure due to sustained geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint. Analysis from financial institution ING warns that these supply chain issues could lead to prolonged higher prices, creating ripple effects across the global economy and potentially impacting inflation.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 21-nautical-mile passage, is a vital corridor for global trade. Approximately 20% of global aluminium shipments and about 21 million barrels of oil per day transit this waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf with international markets. Recent escalations in regional tensions throughout 2025 have significantly impacted shipping schedules, logistics, and insurance costs.
According to ING's commodity research, the disruptions have led to measurable tightening in the aluminium market. Aluminium inventories at major warehouses have declined by 15% year-over-year, while shipping insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Strait have surged by 40% since January 2025. These increased costs are being transferred to consumers, with aluminium futures on the London Metal Exchange showing increased volatility and prices rising approximately 12% since the disruptions intensified.
The oil market is experiencing parallel pressures. ING analysts highlight that extended supply chain issues could maintain elevated crude oil prices for the foreseeable future. Brent crude has consistently traded above $85 per barrel, with shipping insurance premiums rising 40-60% for vessels in affected waters. The disruption is compounded by global oil inventories declining for the third consecutive quarter and a 12% reduction in Gulf-originating tanker traffic compared to seasonal norms.
The implications are widespread. The automotive, aerospace, construction, and packaging sectors are immediately affected by aluminium constraints, with electric vehicle manufacturers under particular pressure as modern EVs contain 50% more aluminium than conventional vehicles. Higher sustained oil prices create immediate cost increases for transportation sectors and raw material pressures for manufacturing industries like petrochemicals and plastics.
Industry responses include developing contingency plans such as rerouting shipments through Saudi Arabia's land bridges or around the African continent, though these alternatives add substantial time and cost. Aluminium producers are investing in regional diversification and recycling infrastructure, while manufacturers explore material substitution, though aluminium's unique properties limit widespread replacement.
Market psychology reflects the uncertainty, with hedge funds increasing net-long positions in crude oil futures by approximately 35% since the disruption began. The situation recalls previous commodity shocks but occurs within a context of 25% growth in global aluminium demand since 2019, driven significantly by renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.
