Micron's AI-Driven Earnings Beat Overshadowed by Capex Hike, Sparking Market Jitters

2 hour ago 1 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Investors are pricing in execution risk from Micron's aggressive capex hike despite strong AI-driven earnings.
  • The stock's post-earnings dip highlights a market shift from growth narratives to capital efficiency scrutiny.
  • Sector rotation into consumer discretionary stocks like Five Below may signal near-term risk-off sentiment for tech.

Micron Technology reported a blockbuster fiscal second quarter for 2026, with revenue of $23.86 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $12.20, both exceeding Wall Street expectations. The company also announced a 30% dividend increase to $0.15 per share and ended the quarter with a record $16.7 billion in cash and investments.

However, the market reaction was negative, with Micron's stock falling approximately 5% in premarket trading on March 19. The sell-off was attributed to investor profit-taking after a 348% surge over the prior year and, more critically, the company's revised capital expenditure plan. Micron raised its fiscal 2026 capex guidance to over $25 billion, an increase of about $5 billion from prior estimates, to expand clean-room capacity and ramp DRAM production to meet soaring AI demand.

Despite the drop, Wall Street analysts remained overwhelmingly bullish. According to MarketBeat data, Micron holds 29 Buy ratings, 5 Strong Buys, and zero Sell ratings. Firms like Needham and UBS raised their price targets, with Needham setting a target of $500, citing the durability of AI-linked memory demand. The company's guidance for fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of around $33.5 billion also significantly surpassed analyst forecasts, driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI data centers.

The broader market context included the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, which contributed to a decline in gold prices and stocks like Newmont. Other notable movers included Five Below surging ~8% on strong sales and dLocal gaining ~7% after beating estimates and announcing a $300 million share buyback.

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