The price of XRP has been locked in a tight consolidation phase since January, showing little momentum to excite traders. However, on-chain metrics are beginning to signal that a local bottom may be forming. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is nearing 1, a level historically indicating that profit-taking is drying up, which often precedes a price floor. Furthermore, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric is flashing late-stage capitulation signals, suggesting the worst of the selling pressure could be over.
Despite these technical signals, market sentiment remains cautious. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 5% probability to XRP reclaiming the $2 level before April. The most likely outcome, with a 41% probability, is a slow grind towards $1.60 by March 30th.
From a chart perspective, XRP faces significant resistance. It is currently trading below both its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.49 and its 200-day SMA at $2.17. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral around 48-50, indicating a potential for a volatile move in either direction. Key levels to watch are support at $1.30, with a break potentially leading to a drop toward $1.11, and resistance at the descending trendline near $1.51, a break above which could target $1.90.
Supporting the narrative of a cooling market, on-chain data reveals a shift in holder composition. While the network is growing—with addresses holding less than 100 XRP reaching a record 5.66 million—participation from large holders is waning. Wallets holding over 100,000 XRP have declined to 32,054. Market activity has also softened, with daily volume down 26% to $2.81 billion and open interest down 1% to $2.50 billion, a significant drop from peaks near $4.6-$4.8 billion in early January.
