Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure shows early signs of stabilization but remains structurally weak, while miner distribution has nearly vanished from the market, creating a complex supply-side picture. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) bounced from 0.750 to 0.792, marking the first uptick after a sharp three-day decline from 0.971 to the lowest level of this cycle. However, the 7-day moving average (SMA) of the SOPR sits at 0.899 and has remained below the critical 1.0 threshold since late February, indicating LTHs are still selling at a loss on average.
The raw daily SOPR is highly volatile, recently surging to 1.43 on March 8 before collapsing to 0.639 within three days. The recent low of 0.639 fits within the typical capitulation zone of 0.60–0.70, but the 7d SMA bottomed near 0.86, suggesting extreme selling was brief and not sustained long enough to confirm a full market bottom. Historically, in cycles like 2018 and 2022, the smoothed metric spent weeks below 0.85 before a durable recovery formed.
Concurrently, Bitcoin miners have become the least active sellers in years. The Miners' Position Index (MPI), which tracks the ratio of miner outflows relative to their one-year moving average, currently sits at negative 1.04. This is one of the lowest readings in the metric's history and only the third time the 30-day moving average has approached the negative 1 threshold.
Historical data shows prior instances of such low MPI readings in late 2016 and twice in 2024, which preceded significant price rallies. However, analysts note that low MPI readings alone have not historically marked absolute price bottoms. The more actionable signal emerged as the metric began recovering upward from depressed levels, indicating miner re-engagement alongside improving market conditions.
The current setup removes a consistent source of downward pressure from the market, but does not create a tailwind. The demand picture remains mixed, with spot ETF outflows persisting through March, open interest near multi-month lows, and altcoin volumes compressed to pre-2025 rally levels. The market now faces a condition where miner selling pressure is structurally absent, but sufficient demand to drive continuation has yet to materialize clearly.
