Bitcoin's momentum is showing signs of a significant bearish shift, according to a key technical indicator that has accurately flagged previous selloffs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has crossed below zero for the third time since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in October 2025, signaling a renewed downturn in momentum.
The MACD indicator uses two lines: the MACD line, calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA, and the Signal line, which is the nine-day EMA of the MACD line. The histogram plots the difference between these two lines. A negative histogram, as seen currently, indicates bearish momentum, with the slope's steepness reflecting its strength.
This signal has a disturbingly accurate track record since Bitcoin's peak above $126,000 in October. The first bearish cross on November 3, 2025, preceded a sharp decline from around $106,000 to $80,000 by November 21. A brief, weak bounce followed a bullish cross, but the next bearish signal on January 20, 2026, with Bitcoin near $90,000, led to another "face-ripping" drop to nearly $60,000 by February 6. Subsequent bullish crosses have only produced disappointing, capped rallies, with the latest peak around $75,000 failing to sustain momentum.
The pattern suggests sellers remain firmly in control, capable of crushing any bullish attempts. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the indicator's strong historical correlation with price declines suggests traders should exercise caution. The analysis raises concerns that Bitcoin's recent resilience, even amid geopolitical tensions like the war with Iran, may be about to crumble under renewed selling pressure.
