Analysts at global investment firm Bernstein have identified Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) as the primary vehicles for gaining exposure to the stablecoin market, citing their strategic partnership around USD Coin (USDC) and the emerging potential of stablecoins in agentic machine payments.
In a client note led by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein described "agentic machine payments" as a significant future upside driver. These are transactions initiated, authorized, and settled entirely by software or autonomous devices, enabling real-time decision-making, price negotiation, and settlement without human intervention. The analysts argue stablecoins are uniquely suited for this environment due to their programmability, instant settlement, micropayment capabilities, and global accessibility.
Infrastructure development is already underway. Coinbase is building the x402 agent payments protocol, which embeds payments into the HTTP layer of the internet. Circle has launched nano payments infrastructure for agents. Separately, Stripe launched its Machine Payments Protocol on the Tempo blockchain through investments in Bridge and Privy.
However, Bernstein provides crucial context on the current traction of these AI payment systems. Stripe's MPP processed only $5,000 in volume during its first week. Coinbase's x402 protocol has handled approximately $25 million over the last 30 days. The analysts emphasize that their core investment thesis for stablecoins does not depend on the success of machine payments, as the sector is already experiencing exponential growth in traditional use cases.
The report highlights that USDC's supply and transaction volumes are at all-time highs, driven by fintech firms building exclusively on stablecoin rails for cross-border settlements, consumer remittances, and card-linked neo-banking. Notably, USDC now leads in market share by transaction volume despite being second in global supply by market capitalization.
Bernstein concludes that the stablecoin investment case is "fast diverging" from the wider crypto market, positioning it as a hyper-growth financial services category. While agentic payments represent additional upside optionality, the analysts maintain that Circle and Coinbase remain the most direct proxies for stablecoin exposure, with the core thesis resting on broader USDC adoption and liquidity.
