Amazon's stock (AMZN) surged roughly 2.8% in pre-market trading on Monday, March 23, 2026, following bullish analyst notes from TD Cowen and Barclays. Both firms reiterated Buy/Overweight ratings and maintained a $300 price target, implying roughly 46% upside from the stock's price near $205 at the time.
The optimism is heavily centered on Amazon Web Services (AWS). TD Cowen expects cloud growth to "reaccelerate through 2025 and into 2026 as demand for AI workloads increases." Barclays provided more specific figures, highlighting Amazon's deal with OpenAI, which it says brings total committed AWS spend to $138 billion over seven to eight years. The bank expects the AWS backlog to move above $350 billion in the next quarter and raised its 2027 AWS revenue estimate by 5%, forecasting AWS revenue growth to hit 34% in Q3 2026.
Further fueling the AI narrative, AI startup Anthropic—in which Amazon is a major investor—saw its annual recurring revenue jump 35% in just weeks during Q1 2026, driven by its Claude Code and Cowork products.
Analysts also pointed to Amazon's advertising and retail segments as supporting the bullish case. TD Cowen expects ad revenue to grow at a "high teens" pace year-over-year in 2026. The firm also noted structural improvements in retail, including record delivery speeds and expansion into same-day perishables, estimating Amazon's 2026 operating income will reach roughly $104 billion.
The rally extended into the trading session on March 24, with the stock closing up 2.3% at $210.14. This gain occurred amidst a broader market rebound and a reassessment of Amazon's aggressive $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, focused on AI infrastructure. CEO Andy Jassy has projected that AI could help AWS reach $600 billion in annual revenue by 2036.
Despite the positive momentum, the company's financials show the cost of this expansion. While operating cash flow rose to $139.5 billion in 2025, free cash flow after capital expenditures shrank to $11.2 billion due to heavy spending on property, equipment, and AI initiatives.
