Former President Donald Trump has once again drawn scrutiny for market-moving social media posts that appear to precede coordinated trading activity, raising serious questions about potential insider trading and market manipulation. On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming "very good and productive conversations" between the United States and Iran regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East." Within an hour, Iranian state media categorically denied any such talks or ceasefire discussions.
The suspicious trading pattern emerged approximately 15 minutes before Trump's post. At around 6:50 a.m. Washington DC time, S&P 500 e-Mini futures on the CME experienced a sharp, unexplained surge in volume during typically thin premarket trading. Simultaneously, West Texas Intermediate May futures saw increased activity. Following Trump's announcement, S&P 500 futures climbed over 2.5% before market open, while WTI futures plummeted nearly 6%.
This incident follows a consistent pattern throughout Trump's post-presidency. On April 2, during his "Liberation Day" tariff event, he delayed revealing specific tariff details until after markets closed at 4:30 p.m. ET, announcing they would take effect the following Saturday when markets were closed. A week later, after significant market declines, he posted "BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well" and "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!" minutes after market open, followed the next day by announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs above 10%, triggering the market's best single-day performance since 2008.
The pattern continued on October 10 when Trump announced 130% tariffs on China 20 minutes after markets closed for the weekend, effective November 1 (another market closure). On January 21, he made geopolitical comments about Greenland 20 minutes before market open following a significant market downturn.
Traders have dubbed this phenomenon the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out), reflecting the pattern of aggressive policy announcements followed by retractions or modifications that create profitable trading opportunities for those positioned ahead of the announcements.
