MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) is facing significant downward pressure, closely tied to bearish technical indicators for Bitcoin (BTC). The MSTR stock price, which held steady around $139 recently, is at risk of falling to its year-to-date low of $105 or even the psychological $100 level. This potential decline is primarily driven by Bitcoin's own technical outlook.
Bitcoin has formed a concerning bearish flag pattern on its charts, having already declined from a high of $126,300 in October 2025 to approximately $70,516. The cryptocurrency also recently executed a death cross, with its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing below its 200-day EMA on February 24, and remains below the Supertrend indicator, signaling a continued downtrend. Analysts suggest a breakdown from the current pattern could see Bitcoin retest its year-to-date low near $60,000, with a potential further drop to $50,000.
Such a decline in Bitcoin's price would directly impact MicroStrategy's financial standing. The company holds 762,099 BTC, valued at over $53 billion at current prices. A drop to $50,000 would slash the value of this treasury to around $38 billion. With a market capitalization of $46 billion, this would give the company a market net asset value (mNAV) multiple of 0.86, erasing the premium it once commanded. Furthermore, MicroStrategy's strategy of using stock issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases leads to shareholder dilution. Outstanding shares have ballooned from 75 million to over 345 million in recent years.
In a related development, MicroStrategy's financial tool for raising capital, its perpetual preferred equity called Stretch (STRC), has shown resilience. STRC, which pays an 11.5% annual dividend, recently reclaimed its $100 par value just nine trading days after its March 13 ex-dividend date, slightly faster than its historical 10-day average. This recovery is crucial as it allows MicroStrategy to issue new shares near par value to raise capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions. The company recently purchased 1,031 BTC for $76.6 million (averaging $74,326 per coin), bringing its total holdings to 762,099 BTC acquired at an average price of $75,694 per bitcoin.
