Morgan Stanley is on the verge of launching its spot Bitcoin ETF, a landmark move as the first such fund from a major U.S. bank. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that an official NYSE listing notice for the fund, ticker MSBT, typically signals an "imminent" launch. This development arrives as fresh data from Charles Schwab indicates Bitcoin's historical volatility has significantly decreased, now lower than that of major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia.
However, the potential catalyst of a new ETF is entering a weak flow environment. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a meager daily net inflow of just $7.81 million on March 25, 2026, a stark contrast to the stronger inflows seen earlier in the month. Total net assets across all Bitcoin spot ETFs stand at $91.63 billion but have been on a gradual decline since early March. The data shows that while long-term Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed materially in the latter part of March, suggesting weakening conviction at current price levels.
The Schwab report underscores Bitcoin's maturation within mainstream finance. Bitcoin's historical volatility was 42% in 2025, roughly half of its 2021 level and lower than Tesla's 63% and Nvidia's 50% for the same year. While Bitcoin's drawdowns remain significant—it fell 77% from its peak during the 2022 downturn—the data shows high-growth tech stocks can experience similarly severe swings. The report frames Bitcoin as increasingly being measured against blue-chip equities rather than purely speculative assets.
Technically, Bitcoin faces a key resistance level. Trading at $69,834 on March 26, BTC has repeatedly failed to secure a daily close above the critical Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $74,297. Analysts suggest that despite the positive news of Morgan Stanley's entry, a sustained recovery in daily ETF net inflows above the $200 million range would be necessary to support a meaningful price breakout towards the $75,000-$79,664 zone.
