Prediction markets have slightly lowered the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried following a public defense mounted by his parents in a CNN interview. According to data from leading prediction platforms, Polymarket currently places the chance of a pardon in 2026 at 11%, down 2 percentage points, while Kalshi shows a 9% probability, down 1 point.
The shift occurred after Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried appeared on CNN's Michael Smerconish show on March 21, 2026, to challenge their son's fraud conviction. In the interview, they argued that while Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, the funds "were not misused" and "the money was always there." Barbara Fried stated, "All the money, it was there, every penny of it," claiming assets were voluntarily turned over during the liquidity crisis and ended up in the FTX bankruptcy estate.
The parents' defense also renewed focus on their own ties to FTX. Joseph Bankman served as a paid adviser, and Barbara Fried was described as a political consultant. The FTX estate had previously sued them in 2023, alleging improper transfers including discussions of a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million Bahamas property. That case was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025.
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son, challenging key government claims that FTX was insolvent on November 11, 2022, that customers had no real repayment prospects, and that Alameda regularly carried a multi-billion-dollar deficit. The family has framed the prosecution as political, with Fried claiming, "Sam's prosecution was essentially political," and alleging parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry.
However, political support for a pardon appears limited. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, "I hope the president doesn't fall for that. [...] He hurt a lot of people." Reports also indicate former President Donald Trump has signaled reluctance to grant clemency. The modest decline in prediction market odds reflects traders' assessment that the public defense did not improve the political feasibility of a pardon, which remains viewed as unlikely.
