Cryptocurrency analysts are sounding the alarm on Bitcoin's price trajectory, highlighting critical cost basis levels that could determine the severity of the ongoing bear market. Joao Wedson, founder of the analytics platform Alphractal, identified a crucial threshold at $60,490. This figure represents the "realized price" of Bitcoin held in Binance's reserves, essentially the average cost basis for all BTC on the exchange.
Wedson warned that if Bitcoin's price falls below this level, a significant portion of Binance's reserves would enter an unrealized loss position. He drew parallels to the 2022 bear market, where reserves remained in the loss zone for an extended period. While noting this level has historically acted as strong support, a breach could have severe technical and psychological consequences. "One of the world’s largest Bitcoin reserves entering an unrealized loss could increase selling pressure, deepening the bear market," Wedson stated, adding that breaking such structural levels could pave the way for sharper declines.
Concurrently, analyst Darkfost points to another major resistance level at the $72,500 adjusted realized price. This metric excludes coins inactive for over seven years to better reflect circulating supply. Bitcoin has traded below this level for nearly two months, a pattern Darkfost notes is reminiscent of past bear cycles where the asset remained suppressed for six to ten months.
Recent price action underscores the weakness. Between March 21-25, Bitcoin faced repeated rejections near $71,000. A failed breakout attempt on March 23 was followed by a clear downtrend, culminating in a sharp drop from ~$68,500 to near $66,000 on March 27. While the RSI sits at a neutral 48.7 and the MACD shows a faint bullish crossover, the overall trend remains bearish. Immediate support is seen at $66,000, with a break below potentially exposing the $65,000 level.
