CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno has presented an analysis suggesting that Bitcoin has not yet reached a definitive market bottom, despite entering what he terms a "final stress phase." The assessment is based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which tracks the profitability of long-term investors.
Moreno highlighted that the NUPL for long-term holders, while having plummeted from a peak of 58% profitability in October to just 3% currently, remains marginally above zero. Historically, durable market bottoms have only formed when this indicator turns negative, signaling that long-term investors are in a state of net unrealized loss and complete capitulation. The analyst noted that such confidence tests in past cycles have lasted anywhere from 6 to 277 days, implying the current process could still require significant time.
From a technical perspective, the market structure supports this on-chain view. Bitcoin's price action shows it is trading below key moving averages (50, 100, and 200 EMA) and is confined within a declining resistance trendline, creating a series of lower highs. This indicates sellers remain in control, and the recent bounce toward $67,000 did not alter the overall bearish macro bias. The analysis concludes that before a true bottom forms, Bitcoin may experience another leg lower or a prolonged period of choppy, sideways-to-down movement.
The report frames the current phase not as complete surrender but as a "late-stage stress" period, where weak hands are being forced out and structural positioning is being reset. The "real opportunity" for a significant recovery is expected to begin only after this final capitulation occurs.
