The Bitcoin price has initiated a recovery wave, climbing above the $67,000 and $67,500 resistance levels after finding a solid base above the $65,000 support zone. The recovery included a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $67,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading above $67,500 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, but faces significant resistance near the $68,500 and $68,800 levels.
Technical analysis indicates a critical juncture for BTC. Immediate resistance sits at $68,500, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward move from the $71,985 swing high to the $65,030 low. A decisive close above the $68,800 resistance could propel the price toward $69,250 and potentially test the $70,000 barrier. Conversely, failure to break above $68,500 could trigger another decline, with immediate support at $67,200, followed by major supports at $67,000, $66,200, and the crucial $65,000 level.
On-chain and derivatives data reveal a complex market structure. Analysis of Bitcoin's spot average order size shows a concentration of large buy orders (green dots) between $60K and $100K, signaling continued accumulation by institutional and high-net-worth investors (whales) despite the market consolidation. In contrast, retail activity appears limited, with smaller, retail-driven transactions (red dots) mainly appearing near short-term price peaks. This pattern suggests a quiet accumulation phase often seen before major price moves.
However, the 90-day Futures Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) highlights a shift, with increasing sell-side pressure (red bars) and fading aggressive buying (green bars). This indicates traders are hitting market sells more frequently, signaling reduced buy-side conviction and a growing probability of short-term exhaustion. The price continues to trade within a rising channel on the daily chart, holding above the key $65,600 support but struggling to break the $70,000–$71,000 resistance zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher near neutral levels, suggesting slow momentum recovery, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative, indicating a lack of strong capital inflows.
Key levels to watch include immediate support at $65,600 and critical support in the $63,000–$64,000 range. A breakdown below $65,000 would increase downside pressure. For a bullish continuation, a confirmed breakout above $71,000 is needed, which could target the $75,000 level.
