Analyst Ali Martinez has identified a recurring technical pattern on Bitcoin's 3-day chart that signals the start of a final liquidation phase, potentially leading to a macro bottom for the current cycle. The pattern involves the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below the 200 SMA, an event known as a "death cross." According to Martinez, this crossover, which occurred on February 27, 2026, does not indicate an immediate bullish reversal but rather marks the beginning of a final, intense sell-off that historically concludes bear markets.
Historical Precedents and Current Setup
Martinez's analysis, based on cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022, reveals a consistent two-step process. First, Bitcoin typically experiences a pre-cross decline of 50% to 72% from its cycle peak. Following the crossover, a sharper capitulation move of 40% to 52% occurs within a window of 23 to 33 days, ultimately forming the cycle's macro low. For instance, in the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin fell roughly 50% before the May crossover, then slid an additional 45% over the next 33 days, with a final lower low forming 156 days later to complete the bear structure.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already corrected approximately 52% from its October 2025 peak, placing it within the historical pre-cross range. As of the analysis date, the market is 30 days into the post-crossover signal, aligning with the historical window for the final capitulation phase. Martinez suggests the "Final Accumulation Window" could begin within the next 3 to 6 days.
Projected Bottom Zones and Market Structure
Based on the historical scale of post-cross declines, Martinez outlines two potential accumulation zones for a long-term bottom: $40,000 for a moderate retracement and $30,000 for a deeper washout. He describes this phase as a "Golden Opportunity" for long-term investors despite the intimidating volatility.
Concurrently, other market observers note Bitcoin's breakdown from a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted that Bitcoin is retesting the broken support level as resistance near $67,000-$68,000. He also pointed out that bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level, which could potentially place a bottom below $57,000.
