SpaceX is preparing for what could be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, aiming to raise between $70 and $75 billion at a staggering valuation of $1.75 trillion. Reports indicate the company plans to file IPO paperwork imminently, with the public offering anticipated for mid-2026. This valuation would instantly rank SpaceX among the world's most valuable corporations and shatter the previous record held by Saudi Aramco.
A cornerstone of the deal is an unusually high allocation for retail investors, with Elon Musk reportedly seeking to reserve up to 30% of shares for the public. This dwarfs the typical 5% to 10% retail allotment seen in most major IPOs. The distribution strategy is being personally overseen by Musk, who has assigned specific roles to major banks: Bank of America will handle U.S. retail investors, Morgan Stanley will cater to smaller investors through its E*Trade platform, UBS will target wealthy international investors, and Citi will manage global distribution for both retail and institutional clients.
This bank-centric "closed-loop" strategy, particularly the central role of Morgan Stanley's E*Trade as the lead conduit for retail demand, is seen as a significant challenge for popular fintech platforms like Robinhood and SoFi. Their potential exclusion from such a landmark event could limit user growth and trading volume on these platforms.
However, timing remains uncertain. Betting markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket reflect skepticism about an immediate launch. Kalshi markets assign only a 6% chance of an official announcement before May 1, rising to 25% by June 1 and 66% by July 1. Polymarket users see a 59% probability the entire IPO process concludes by the end of June.
The massive valuation leap from around $800 billion at the end of 2025 is attributed to SpaceX's core successes and future ambitions. The company's reusable rocket technology has revolutionized launch costs, while its Starlink satellite internet service now operates over 10,000 satellites, serves more than 10 million paying customers, and is profitable. SpaceX is also expanding into wireless spectrum, with the FCC confirming the company will participate in a major auction starting June 2, competing against telecom giants like T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T.
A key driver of the premium valuation is Musk's vision for space-based AI data centers, which posits that unlimited solar power in orbit could make orbital data centers cheaper than terrestrial ones within years. Despite this ambitious pitch, the news is shadowed by significant leadership turmoil at Musk's other venture, xAI, which has seen its entire founding team depart since January, including the last original co-founder, Ross Nordeen, who left last week. This exodus raises questions about Musk's management style that investors must weigh against SpaceX's formidable track record.
