Ethereum's derivatives market is flashing a rare bullish signal not seen in three years, as its Net Taker Volume metric has turned positive, indicating a potential regime shift from selling to buying pressure. According to data highlighted by analyst Darkfost, the metric shows a positive difference of over $104 million in buying volume, the most positive level since 2023. This shift suggests that buyers are beginning to overwhelm sellers in the ETH derivatives market for the first time since the last bear phase.
This on-chain development contrasts with a challenging price environment, as ETH has been consolidating around the $2,000 level for nearly a month with no clear technical path to recovery. Darkfost noted that Ethereum faced intense selling pressure even during its previous all-time highs, making this current shift in market dynamics particularly noteworthy. The analyst concluded that if this positive buying dynamic persists and is supported by the spot market and ETFs, Ethereum could potentially restart a positive trend and form a strong market bottom.
However, the positive on-chain signal is juxtaposed against continued outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs. These investment products recorded over $42.15 million in net outflows over the past week, including a single-day net outflow of more than $71.12 million on April 3. This trend reflects waning short-term investor appetite, and analysts infer that a reversal in ETF capital flow is necessary for a sustained price recovery.
Concurrently, market participants are identifying key accumulation zones for a potential future bull run. Analysts, referencing tools like MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) and URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), have pinpointed several support levels. The $1,800 level is seen as a crucial near-term support, situated near the 0.80 MVRV band around $1,880. If this level fails, further accumulation zones are identified at $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089, based on historical on-chain data showing where large amounts of ETH last moved.
The potential trigger for a new bull run, according to analysts, is a sustained move above Ethereum's realized price near $2,500. This level represents the point where the average holder returns to profit, which could reduce selling pressure and attract new buyers. Should this occur, subsequent price targets are identified near $4,900 and the 2.40 MVRV band around $5,900. As of the latest data, Ethereum is trading at approximately $2,058, reflecting a minor 0.6% increase over 24 hours.
