Crypto analyst LP has declared that Bitcoin has not yet shown a true bottoming formation, suggesting the leading cryptocurrency remains at risk despite its current price attempting to form support. In an X post, LP noted that historical bear market bottoms typically form after multiple sweeps of the lows, forcing capitulation before a reversal. However, the current cycle has been different, with Bitcoin consistently sweeping highs, making short positions difficult while building liquidity below current levels.
LP stated it is likely a matter of time before price targets lower wicks, which could then initiate a proper bottoming process ahead of the next bull cycle. He advised market participants to watch price action closely, indicating a true bottom may form when price starts repeatedly sweeping lows, making it psychologically difficult to enter long positions.
Adding to the cautious outlook, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, echoed a similar sentiment during a CNBC appearance. She described Bitcoin's current price action as a prolonged basing phase with support in the $58,000 to $59,000 range, expecting multiple retests of that level before any sustained move higher. Stockton emphasized the charts lack typical bottom confirmation signals like oversold upturns or breadth extremes, advising investors not to chase brief relief rallies.
LP specifically highlighted the $63,000 level as a likely target to be swept, noting price remains range-bound. He advised entering at the extremes of the range, suggesting $63,000–$62,000 as a solid area for hedge longs. On lower time frames, LP observed that high-leverage short clusters have been cleared, while larger clusters remain overhead up to $75,000, with long liquidation clusters building around $66,000.
Bitcoin's recent recovery attempt occurs against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, with reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, Stockton cautioned that even a ceasefire may not be enough to reverse the damage building in financial markets, noting an unfavourable backdrop from a potential continued equity correction and widening credit spreads.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $69,100, up over 3% in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
