Standard Chartered Bank's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, has set a $500,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2030, with a nearer-term checkpoint of $100,000 by the end of 2026. The forecast was delivered during an appearance on the Milk Road podcast, not via a formal published research note. Kendrick's thesis rests on Bitcoin's supply scarcity converging with deepening institutional demand, treating BTC as digital gold. He noted a potential pullback toward $50,000 if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates tighter than markets expect.
Separately, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, presented a long-term case for Bitcoin reaching $1 million, which he described as a conservative target. Hougan's logic ties Bitcoin's future value to the growth of the global store-of-value market, which he estimates at about $40 trillion, dominated by gold. Bitcoin currently holds a 4-5% share of this market, valued at roughly $1.4 trillion. Hougan stated that with the store-of-value market historically expanding at about 12.5% annually, Bitcoin would need to capture a 15% share to reach a $1 million valuation.
Both forecasts highlight increasing institutional participation. Kendrick referenced the progression of Standard Chartered's targets, from $100,000–$200,000 by end-2021 to a $200,000 target for 2025, citing U.S. election outcomes and spot ETF approvals. Hougan pointed to spot Bitcoin ETFs being among the fastest-growing exchange-traded products and exposure from large investors like Harvard and Abu Dhabi sovereign funds. He also noted that Bitcoin's long-term volatility has declined, supporting its role as a store of value and leading to increased portfolio allocations from around 1% to closer to 5%.
Market reaction to the Standard Chartered forecast was measured. Bitcoin's price climbed roughly 100 basis points to around $67,500, with 24-hour trading volume rising 16.75% to $18.68 billion. Analysts suggest the news generated sentiment support without triggering a major breakout. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy added to the bullish narrative by posting its holdings of 762,099 BTC, hinting at potential further accumulation.
