Citi analysts have initiated 30-day upside catalyst watches on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Analog Devices ahead of their first-quarter earnings, citing strong data center demand and pricing power. For AMD, Citi maintained a Neutral rating but lowered its price target to $248 from $260, shifting to a sum-of-the-parts valuation. Analysts slightly raised their 2026 earnings per share estimate for AMD to $6.38 from $6.34, driven by higher CPU sales linked to agentic AI demand.
AMD's server CPU market share rose to 41.3% in Q4 2025, up from 39% the prior quarter, while Intel's share dropped to 58.7%. Both Intel and AMD have informed customers of CPU price increases starting in March and April. Citi sees potential upside to Wall Street estimates for AMD due to this pricing power and continued server share gains, even as the company expects the second half of 2026 to be below seasonal norms.
For Analog Devices, Citi holds a Buy rating with a $400 price target, with the catalyst watch tied to analog chip price increases. Supply chain discussions indicate both Analog Devices and Texas Instruments are raising analog prices by 10–15% due to higher input costs. Citi's estimates for Analog Devices are already above Street consensus for the April and July quarters.
The data center segment, representing 34% of total semiconductor demand, remains the market's strongest part. Citi models capital spending by the five largest U.S. cloud providers growing 69% in 2026, following a 79% increase in 2025. The firm projects the total data center semiconductor addressable market will reach $731 billion by 2028. Citi also expressed a more constructive view on broader CPU demand as the industry shifts toward inference and agentic AI workloads.
Separately, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reported that Nvidia may cut 2026 production of its next-generation Rubin GPUs to about 1.5 million units, down from a planned 2 million, due to shortages of high-bandwidth memory from suppliers SK Hynix and Micron Technology. Despite this, KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and $275 price target on Nvidia stock.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that Vera Rubin AI servers, powered by the Rubin GPU, are in "full production," with sales targeted for the second half of 2026. The Vera Rubin platform is projected to be 3.3 times faster than the current Blackwell Ultra. Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market, capturing roughly 90% of AI accelerator spend and about 85% of the broader AI chip market. Tech giants are projected to spend between $600 billion and $700 billion on AI data centers in 2026 alone.
In its most recent quarter, Nvidia posted revenue growth of 75% year over year, with Q1 guidance topping Wall Street estimates by $5 billion, indicating growth of around 77%.
