Deep discounts are prevalent in crypto token secondary markets, but claims of widespread 90% markdowns are overstated, according to industry experts. Santiago Roel Santos, founder of crypto private equity firm Inversion, recently stated on X that the average discount on the "vast majority of crypto secondaries" is about 90%, a situation he described as having "never been this bad." However, a deeper investigation reveals a more nuanced picture.
Market data indicates that while discounts have widened, extreme cases are not the norm. Omar Shakeeb, co-founder of secondary marketplace SecondLane, reported that roughly 60% of secondary demand is offered at a discount, with average pricing in the -40% to -46% range. The most extreme discounts are concentrated in the "bottom 10%" of opportunities, offered at -60% or deeper. "The broad market is clearly discount-heavy, but ~90% discounts should be viewed as isolated distressed cases rather than the clearing level across the market," Shakeeb said.
Discounts are heavily influenced by vesting schedules. Data from platforms like OFFX and Acquire.Fi shows a clear correlation between lock-up duration and discount depth. Jonas Thiele, CEO of OFFX, noted that short vesting schedules (≤12 months) see a median discount of ~40%, while mid-duration positions (13–24 months) sit around 50%. The long end—36 months and above—has seen the most significant widening, from a 50% median pre-2025 to 60%+ in 2025 onwards, with a growing tail above 70–80%.
Jan Strandberg, CEO of Acquire.Fi, confirmed that assets with 1.5 to 2+ years of lock-up are seeing 70% or higher discounts. He contrasted this with the 2024 bear market, where discounts were significant but not at today's levels, and highlighted that high-conviction projects like EigenLayer, Scroll, and Berachain once commanded "near-zero discounts" despite long vesting.
Four key factors are driving the discount widening:
1. Supply Overhang & Weak Demand: Jake Ostrovskis of Wintermute pointed to a significant weekly token unlock of $500 million to $1 billion, met with weak buyer demand.
2. Thinned Liquidity: Brandon Potts of Framework Ventures noted a pullback of dedicated crypto capital, a rotation into areas like AI, and institutional focus on regulated products, leaving "a large portion of the token market without natural buyers."
3. Flawed Token Value Accrual: Thiele explained that the 2021–2023 era featured token launches with low float, high fully diluted valuation (FDV), and tokenomics that rewarded early insiders without linking value to protocol revenue or usage. As these tokens unlock, sell-side pressure from insiders looking to exit at any price intensifies.
4. Investor Shift to Equity: Jeff Dorman of Arca stated, "Today, VCs are mostly buying equities and liquid funds have no interest in illiquid discounted crap." Jan-Philip Grabs of Areta added that high-quality equity secondaries see much lower discounts, sometimes even premiums, as investors focus on fundamentals and clearer exit paths like M&A and IPOs. Data from SecondLane shows equity now accounts for about 40% of total expressed interest.
The weakest sectors, like gaming, are seeing the deepest discounts (around 80%), while stronger pricing is found in areas with institutional demand and clear fundamentals. A limited set of tokens with clear value accrual, shorter lockups, strong ecosystems, or hedgeability in liquid markets still see tighter discounts.
Looking ahead, experts believe discounts can tighten only with improved market conditions and structural changes. Dorman argued that "everything needs to change," including better token structuring by issuers and improved pricing by exchanges. Strandberg suggested the standard 3–4 year vesting model is outdated in the faster AI-era market and that shorter lockups could improve liquidity. He expressed cautious optimism for the second half of the year, expecting improved macro conditions and better performance from bitcoin and other assets to help tighten discounts.
Several sources pointed to projects like Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a model, with clear product-market fit, strong revenue, and sustainable business models where tokens are fundamentally valued relative to business fundamentals.
