Financial economist and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has shared a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), challenging conventional market cycle theories. Despite recent price weakness that saw BTC dip below $69,000, Pal argues that Bitcoin is in a five-year "supercycle" and that its bull market is not yet over. He projects the flagship cryptocurrency could reach its ultimate cycle peak in the second quarter of 2026.
Pal's thesis hinges on the extension of the global business cycle due to reduced financial system liquidity. He notes that Bitcoin appears to be tracking this extended cycle, leaving room for a resumption of its previous uptrend. In a recent video shared on X, Pal explained that Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount because of tight liquidity conditions. Based on this analysis, he forecasts BTC could climb to at least $140,000, establishing a new all-time high. This target represents a gain of over 100% from current levels near $68,500 and over 10% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
Separately, a market commentator using the handle @CoinvoTrading presented a technical analysis suggesting an even more ambitious long-term target. The analysis is based on a broad ascending channel that has historically guided Bitcoin's price across multiple cycles. According to the model, the channel's midpoint—a critical resistance level—sits at approximately $300,757. The analyst argues that a move to this level does not require a parabolic bull run but could be achieved through steady, long-term momentum within the channel's structure.
The accompanying chart projects a potential timeline for reaching this midpoint around April 23, 2028. The model also outlines the channel's extremes, with a lower boundary near $106,712 and an upper extreme extending toward roughly $973,197. The central thesis is that Bitcoin could approach the $300,000 region as a structural milestone before a decisive breakout above that level would signal the transition into a more aggressive bull market phase.
